Pashinyan wins strong mandate as Armenia faces constitutional limits on peace process

Armenia’s parliamentary election has strengthened Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s mandate, with analysts linking the result to his post-Garabagh agenda and pro-Western direction. However, constitutional constraints remain a key obstacle to peace efforts with Azerbaijan. 

Speaking to AnewZ, political analyst Eldar Hamzali said the vote was particularly significant as Armenia’s first regular parliamentary election in eight years, following a series of snap elections since 2018.

He said the election also reflected public support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s post-Garabagh vision, after Yerevan effectively declared the conflict over.

“It was a test for Nikol Pashinyan and for Armenian society as well,” Hamzali said, adding that “at least half of the voters who went to polling stations have voted for this future.”

Recounts unlikely to shift power balance

While some opposition groups have challenged results in individual precincts and filed complaints with the Central Electoral Commission, Arsen Kharatyan, founder of AliQ Media, told AnewZ's Guy Shone on Primetime that major changes remain unlikely.

Kharatyan added that even if a fourth party enters parliament after recounts, the ruling Civil Contract party would lose only a small number of mandates alongside other parties.

He also noted that discussions on constitutional change and referendums extend beyond parliament, arguing there are multiple mechanisms within Armenian society to initiate such processes. 

“I’m not even sure that a referendum is part of or should be part of the discussion with regards to the peace agreement. [...] We have far more reaching goals as parties besides the constitutional change.”

Constitutional hurdles in peace process

The election result has also renewed attention on efforts to finalise a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Kharatyan said the outcome removes uncertainty over political representation in negotiations.

“I don't see any challenge for the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement signing,” he said, adding that Pashinyan has a governing majority and “has all the legal rights to sign the agreement.”

However, Hamzali pointed to constitutional constraints as a key obstacle in the process. He said Azerbaijan has repeatedly called for the removal of references to Armenia’s Declaration of Independence from the constitution’s preamble, arguing it contains territorial claims.

He added that “Armenia’s constitution requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority to initiate a referendum on constitutional amendments,” a threshold the ruling party currently lacks.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov has previously stressed the need to remove territorial claims from Armenia’s constitution.

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Balance between Europe and Russia

Analysts say the election gives Pashinyan space to continue balancing closer ties with Europe while maintaining pragmatic relations with Russia.

Hamzali said Armenia remains economically dependent on Russia and cannot rapidly shift toward Europe. “Armenia needs time,” he said, noting that EU integration requires extensive reforms and standards alignment.

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He added that Moscow is likely to tolerate Armenia’s current direction as long as core interests are not challenged.

“I think Russia will tolerate” Armenia’s current trajectory, he said, provided Yerevan avoids crossing major Russian red lines.

Türkiye normalisation tied to regional peace

The future of Armenia’s normalisation process with Türkiye is expected to depend largely on progress between Yerevan and Baku.

“The Armenian-Turkish normalisation is much dependent on Armenia-Azerbaijan normalisation,” Hamzali said, noting that Turkish officials have linked border opening to broader peace progress.

Domestic focus shifts to economy

Beyond foreign policy, economic issues are expected to dominate the Armenian government’s agenda following the election.

Hamzali said security concerns remain important but are gradually being overtaken by economic priorities. “The second concern is, of course, the economy,” he said.

With a renewed mandate, Pashinyan’s government is expected to prioritise economic reform while managing complex regional dynamics and constitutional limitations.

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Armenia Armenian Elections Politics Nikol Pashinyan European Union Regional Security